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分析思维降低情感预测影响偏差 Analytical Thinking Reduces Impact Bias in Affective Forecast 作者： 耿晓伟 1 刘丹 1 牛燕华 1 作者单位： 1. 鲁东大学 通讯作者： 耿晓伟 Email:fengandwei@126.com 提交时间： 2020-05-07 摘要: 人们在决策前需要对决策可能带来的结果进行预测。人们往往会高估未来事件对情感的影响, 这被称为影响偏差。本研究从双系统理论出发, 考察了分析思维是否会降低情感预测影响偏差。实验1（采用图片启动）和实验2（采用语言流畅性任务）考察了分析思维对影响偏差的影响，并分析了情感预测程度的中介作用。实验3在现场中以真实的决策（生育二孩）为例，考察了分析思维启动对情感预测的影响。结果发现：分析思维会降低情感预测，进而降低情感预测的影响偏差。 Abstract: " People overestimate the intensity and duration of their affective reactions to events in the future. This is called impact bias (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003). Impact bias influences individuals’ satisfaction with their decision making. Few studies have shed light on how to reduce impact bias in affective forecast based on dual-process theories. According to dual-process theories of human thinking, there are two distinct but interacting systems for information processing. System 1 relies on frugal heuristics and produces intuitive responses, while System 2 relies on deliberative analytical processing. System 2 often overrides the input of System 1 when analytical thinking is activated. Thus, we here hypothesize that analytical thinking reduces the impact bias in affective forecasting. In experiment 1, a total of 240 undergraduates were assigned to play an ultimatum game as proposers and asked to predict how they would feel when their proposals were accepted or rejected by responders. At random, they were told their proposals were accepted or rejected. As soon as they knew the result, they were asked to report how they felt. Before the ultimatum game began, participants were randomly assigned to view pictures of The Thinker to prime analytical thinking or geometric figures as a control condition. The results showed that analytical thinking reduced impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. In experiment 2, a total of 52 undergraduates took part in a memory test. They were asked to predict how they would feel if their score on a memory test exceeded 90% or not before they took the test. As soon as they knew the result that they did not exceed 90%, they were asked to report how they felt. Before taking the memory test, participants were randomly assigned to perform a verbal fluency task with words related to analytical thinking to prime analytical thinking or to a verbal fluency task with words not related to analytical thinking as a control condition. The results showed that analytical thinking reduced impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. In experiment 3, a total of 111 women who had only one child were asked to predict how they would feel if they had a second. Before predicting their feelings, they were randomly assigned to view pictures of The Thinker to prime analytical thinking or geometric figures as a control condition. Results showed that analytical thinking reduced the positive affect of having the second child but not the negative affect of having the second child. In sum, the present research shows that analytical thinking reduces impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. It can help us reduce impact bias in affective forecasting when making decisions and promote satisfaction with those decisions. Limitations and further research are here discussed as well. 分析思维 情感预测 影响偏差 双系统理论 来自： 耿晓伟 分类： 心理学 >> 应用心理学 引用： ChinaXiv:202005.00026 (或此版本 ChinaXiv:202005.00026V1 ) doi:10.12074/202005.00026 CSTR:32003.36.ChinaXiv.202005.00026.V1 推荐引用方式： 耿晓伟,刘丹,牛燕华.(2020).分析思维降低情感预测影响偏差.中国科学院科技论文预发布平台.[ChinaXiv:202005.00026] 版本历史 [V1] 2020-05-07 09:30:00 ChinaXiv:202005.00026V1 下载全文
HE
之前通过阴阳神眼，他看到了古雷界、古电圣域等人，也看到了水小牛、梁真伯、夏侯宁静等人，前者都在打着他身上的《种田：糙汉夫君有点甜》的主意呢，此刻不宜被他们发现，否则不大不小的麻烦肯定是会有的
撒糖
并不是说他修炼了《危境和炼丹》，实力大进，就可以单挑合道期的修士了，两人之间毕竟相差太多，周奇也没有信心爆棚到这样的地步，但是，从身后那名魔族手下逃脱掉的信心，周奇还是有的
剑与魔法
2016年7月发行全新EP《陌路、末路》。
萌系
给你一本小说的名字:网游之兰州资源环境职业技术大学天下 再给出一段话： “啪！
市井
【双洁+甜宠+宅斗+纯古言+双向暗恋+破镜重圆+追妻火葬场】 沈云婉初来上京城，只想安稳的做镇北侯府表姑娘。 一朝阴差阳错，她竟和还未说过几句话的大表哥魏寒洲缠绵了一夜，此等丑事若是曝出，她定会名声扫地被赶出去，幸而魏寒州事后不记得对方是自己。 还不等沈云婉松口气，魏寒洲的态度却日渐微妙…… 上元佳节，沈云婉登高挂灯祈福，不小心跌落，谁知却被魏寒洲接住。 他搂着她盈盈一握的腰身，眼眸晦暗：“婉儿腰肢如此娇软，似是有些熟悉。” 沈云婉推拒：“娇软美人多的是，表哥搂过也属正常。” 后来她被姊妹陷害，魏寒洲打跑了想要玷污她清白的男人，俯身去擦她嘴角的血：“婉儿身上香味颇为独特，似乎在哪里闻过?” “这香许多人用，闻过也正常。” “确实，可这娇娇轻喘，表哥却只听过一次。” 魏寒洲对她越发亲密…… 沈云婉只觉得自己被他的深情大网层层裹住，就在她准备坦白一切时，却听见魏寒洲的友人说道：“三月赌期已到，你那表妹已然上勾，魏兄手段果然了得啊。” 沈云婉脸颊顿时失了血色，手不由自主地搭在那已显圆润的肚子上……
创业
【修仙学院】+【正能量】+【轻松】+【乐子】+【群像】 评分后面会涨，请放心观看 高考落榜的李恒，意外绑定了【修仙学院系统】。系统要求他众筹百亿，创建修仙学院，为众生开辟仙道。可问题是，他明明是金丹修士，却被系统限制，只能靠一张嘴去“忽悠”人捐款！ 于是，李恒走上了一条“网络众筹”的不归路。 他自称仙人，却被当成网络诈骗犯，账号屡屡被封； 他摆摊算命，想积攒人气，却被城管驱逐，还被街头主播当众打假； 他好不容易忽悠了个主播，本想秀一把仙术，却意外被当成“顶级盒武器”，直播曝光了对方祖宗十八代，阴差阳错间获得了五千众筹，还被城管驱逐…… 正当他以为自己就是个抱着金饭碗要饭的乞丐时，支付宝和微信却开始疯狂到账！短短十几分钟，众筹金额竟突破三百万！ 李恒看着手机里不断跳动的数字，一脸茫然：“我……我到底干了什么？” 本书又名《我真没想当骗子啊》、《我的修仙学院众筹有点离谱》、《金丹大能也要遵守基本法》、《关于我以为的诈骗其实是传道这件事》。
推理
【穿书+女强+医女+宅斗+权谋+复仇爽文】 【人间清醒钓系美人vs智多近妖俊美相爷】 阮素青穿书了，穿成《娇颜金枝》里的同名炮灰女配。 外室庶女，被污蔑勾引姐夫，母女俩惨遭“草席裹尸”。 开局就三个铜板，一个病恹恹的姨娘？ 阮素青冷笑，反手撕了剧本。 雌竞？渣男？ 不如搞权搞钱搞相爷！ …… 汴京城最稀奇的事，莫过于阮家那个小庶女，居然被程、叶两家同时提亲了。 曾对她百般嫌弃，让她有多远滚多远的原男主，反过来央求她回心转意。 “青妹，原来我自始至终，喜欢的都是你啊。” 阮素青冷笑，反手把庚帖扔他脸上。 “不好意思，我有人了，我比较喜欢程相爷这款。” 男人凤眸幽深，唇角笑意危险，“素素，喜欢我……这款？嗯？” 看着这张俊美殊绝的脸，阮素青微微一笑。 “你是天花板。” 这位权势滔天的相爷，也是被她搞到手了。 【亲，您有个“一品诰命夫人”册封待激活】 【阮素青x程灵洗，势均力敌x老树开花】
武侠
天地如洪炉，阴阳为炭，人为铜，道为火。 有传道如抱薪救火者，终引火自焚，错，错，错。 直到顾芳尘一睁眼，穿越到游戏《欧阳白传》的世界里，他才终于明白这句话之中的秘密。 …… 那一年，镇北王妃尚且温柔如水，溺子成痴。 大郡主冷若冰霜，眼高于顶，千金难求一笑。 小郡主娇俏蠢萌，一心英雄少侠，最恨无耻小人。 长公主叱咤号军神，女国师翻手覆云雨。 而以一无是处、坏得流脓闻名天下的镇北王独子，刚刚被发现实为昔年魔教调包的卑贱马奴之子。 真正的世子，乃是圣人真传、得了一口浩然正气的新科状元。 玩家顾芳尘不在乎，并决定开始速通。
古代百合
应该就是这两张纸，黄宏元已经事先准备，和书无关，进士科考题不可能仅仅只包含一本《东煌纪》。
搞笑
岑子义
老师老师我们喜欢你，见见老婆可以不可以！
呜呜呜呜呜呜呜7队QAQ
视角不停串换,却思路清晰缜密,好文相见恨晚
清继续努力，支持中！！！
最喜欢的半基建文！为啥叫半基建，因为感觉又不像一般的基建文一样兢兢业业干活，但又是在慢慢扩张搞建设，但真的很好看！