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分析思维降低情感预测影响偏差 Analytical Thinking Reduces Impact Bias in Affective Forecast 作者： 耿晓伟 1 刘丹 1 牛燕华 1 作者单位： 1. 鲁东大学 通讯作者： 耿晓伟 Email:fengandwei@126.com 提交时间： 2020-05-07 摘要: 人们在决策前需要对决策可能带来的结果进行预测。人们往往会高估未来事件对情感的影响, 这被称为影响偏差。本研究从双系统理论出发, 考察了分析思维是否会降低情感预测影响偏差。实验1（采用图片启动）和实验2（采用语言流畅性任务）考察了分析思维对影响偏差的影响，并分析了情感预测程度的中介作用。实验3在现场中以真实的决策（生育二孩）为例，考察了分析思维启动对情感预测的影响。结果发现：分析思维会降低情感预测，进而降低情感预测的影响偏差。 Abstract: " People overestimate the intensity and duration of their affective reactions to events in the future. This is called impact bias (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003). Impact bias influences individuals’ satisfaction with their decision making. Few studies have shed light on how to reduce impact bias in affective forecast based on dual-process theories. According to dual-process theories of human thinking, there are two distinct but interacting systems for information processing. System 1 relies on frugal heuristics and produces intuitive responses, while System 2 relies on deliberative analytical processing. System 2 often overrides the input of System 1 when analytical thinking is activated. Thus, we here hypothesize that analytical thinking reduces the impact bias in affective forecasting. In experiment 1, a total of 240 undergraduates were assigned to play an ultimatum game as proposers and asked to predict how they would feel when their proposals were accepted or rejected by responders. At random, they were told their proposals were accepted or rejected. As soon as they knew the result, they were asked to report how they felt. Before the ultimatum game began, participants were randomly assigned to view pictures of The Thinker to prime analytical thinking or geometric figures as a control condition. The results showed that analytical thinking reduced impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. In experiment 2, a total of 52 undergraduates took part in a memory test. They were asked to predict how they would feel if their score on a memory test exceeded 90% or not before they took the test. As soon as they knew the result that they did not exceed 90%, they were asked to report how they felt. Before taking the memory test, participants were randomly assigned to perform a verbal fluency task with words related to analytical thinking to prime analytical thinking or to a verbal fluency task with words not related to analytical thinking as a control condition. The results showed that analytical thinking reduced impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. In experiment 3, a total of 111 women who had only one child were asked to predict how they would feel if they had a second. Before predicting their feelings, they were randomly assigned to view pictures of The Thinker to prime analytical thinking or geometric figures as a control condition. Results showed that analytical thinking reduced the positive affect of having the second child but not the negative affect of having the second child. In sum, the present research shows that analytical thinking reduces impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. It can help us reduce impact bias in affective forecasting when making decisions and promote satisfaction with those decisions. Limitations and further research are here discussed as well. 分析思维 情感预测 影响偏差 双系统理论 来自： 耿晓伟 分类： 心理学 >> 应用心理学 引用： ChinaXiv:202005.00026 (或此版本 ChinaXiv:202005.00026V1 ) doi:10.12074/202005.00026 CSTR:32003.36.ChinaXiv.202005.00026.V1 推荐引用方式： 耿晓伟,刘丹,牛燕华.(2020).分析思维降低情感预测影响偏差.中国科学院科技论文预发布平台.[ChinaXiv:202005.00026] 版本历史 [V1] 2020-05-07 09:30:00 ChinaXiv:202005.00026V1 下载全文

一龙二凤三小猪，四痞五秀六和尚是青鼠创作的经典历史小说类作品，讲述了： 方木魂穿平行世界，意外获得了视频盘点系统。开局盘点十大帝王，紧接着十大昏君，十大武将，十大奸臣。不仅能让当时人看到，还同步各朝各代。古人都震惊了。.........秦始皇：横扫六合，一统天下，可惜朕到今日才拿到世界地图刘邦：乃公的，我刘家的基因没话说李世民：我怎么不是顺位继承啊？你没有听说过玄武门继承法吗？完颜构：...

【真实官场+快节奏+爆爽打脸+恶有恶报】 苏哲穿越人民的名义世界。 开局是京圈公子，坐拥雄厚的家族底蕴，数不清的资源关系。 然而父亲却让苏哲从基层做起。 安排去汉东给京州市光明区的二把手孙连城当副手！ 李达康：让你整改市政服务窗口，你盖CBD？ 孙连城：让你招商引资，你把特斯拉从魔都手里抢过来？ 祁同伟：让你扫嘿，这重装合成旅什么鬼？ 沙瑞金：让你搞科技创新，你一箭百星发射上天？

【多女主不拖沓】【剧情爽快】【主线明确】【无敌】【杀伐果断】 垂死老汉的逆袭：仙子，你的温柔，老奴收下了！ 顾平，一个寿元将尽、修为停滞在炼气三层的垂死杂役，在璃月仙宗当了三十年炼器奴仆，却连最基础的双修功法都求而不得。 直到他激活了【暴击双修系统】。 凭借系统，顾平踏上一条前所未有的修行之路 （传统修仙+系统流+暴爽逆袭+多女主互动，节奏快，杀伐果断，不憋屈！） 这一世，我顾平，要活个痛快！」

2000年参演首部电视剧《陆东宁注定将失去言言的爱情》。

楚玄穿越成古代破产青楼的少东家，本想还清债务，苟活于世。却绑定【风月霸主系统】拥有无限资金，但只能用于青楼的所有开销。楚玄想赚钱？就先得让姑娘们赚得盆满钵满！ 为了让自己富起来，楚玄被迫开启宠姑娘模式，他的青楼各种福利！ 结果，“揽月楼”成了姑娘们眼中的天堂，达官贵人眼中的销金窟，也成了朝廷的眼中钉。 当敌国公主、魔教妖女、风韵王妃、将门虎女都成了他店里的头牌…… 楚玄望着身后这支由天下绝色组成的“娘子军”，欲哭无泪。 “我只是个开青楼的，真没想造反啊！”

【单+魔女+末世+搞乐子+游戏世界融合+中立BOSS+萝莉】 战力第一bug级的自信嚣张玩家穿越到游戏后期魔女BOSS，此时还是一只自卑弱气的小萝莉，结果成为了前期开始的嚣张萝莉BOSS。 虽然是末日游戏，但是游戏原本的主角却一个接着一个出场。 “不过再怎么说都是一些原著的主角，根本不需要担心嘛，随便就可以玩弄于鼓掌之间啦~” 虽然很强但是还想装一装柔弱的白晓月如是想到。 不过再另外一个世界，这一切的一切都在作为游戏宣传片反映。 世界之间的引导连接让这个世界连接成为原本的游戏。 知晓宣传片中一切事情的生物——玩家——进入！ 来自于原本操控世界的可怕管理们，世界进化的主线引导着向完全不一样的情况进发。 事情逐渐变得乱了起来。 本书又名：《成为末日游戏世界超气人毒舌魔女》 《末日游戏魔女BOSS才不会屑！》 《给萝莉魔女加点人气，靠！成气人了》 《那毒舌魔女凭什么游戏人气第一啊！》

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…… 姓名/席斯法尔·克雷因 年龄/29岁 出生地/天之部落（羽族之乡） 生辰/兰州资源环境职业技术大学历1007年·雾之月·3日 血型/O型 身高/179cm 体重/35kg（因为有羽族血统） 星座/水瓶座 发/苍炎色 瞳/苍炎色 家庭成员/不详 身份/东城三将之末 职业/二刀流·剑士 喜欢的食物/美食 讨厌的食物/劣食 爱好/品尝美食 厌恶/怕女孩子的毛病 擅长/战术和剑技 喜欢的颜色/天空色 理想/能流畅地和女性说话 武器/双剑 备注/东城的三位将军，席斯法尔和马尔亚姆走得更近些，当然这不表示他们就疏远了伊芙，只是认识比较早，性格也更加投契。

…… M正在办公室内披兰州资源环境职业技术大学件，同时大声的质问下属的那些特工：“你们居然还是没有任何消息么