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基于主题模型和时间序列分析的新兴主题识别与特征关联研究 Research on Emerging Topic Recognition and Feature Association Based on Topic Model and Time Series Analysis 作者：李雅倩 1,2 孙玉玲 1,2 赵婉雨 1 作者单位： 1. 中国科学院文献情报中心北京 100090 2. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院图书情报与档案管理系北京 100049 提交时间： 2023-10-08 摘要: [ 目的 / 意义 ] 开展新兴主题识别研究，科学有效地发掘其特征关联规律，可以更好地服务于现实需求，发挥科技情报研究对学科发展的创新支撑作用。[ 方法 / 过程 ] 从新兴主题特征定义出发，结合新兴主题研究与科学影响评价的相关理论与实践，利用自然语言处理、全局主成分分析和时间序列分析方法建立新兴主题识别的方法框架，量化主题的一致性、新颖性、影响力和增长性等特征，结合趋势预测完成对新兴主题的提取、分析和识别。在新兴主题识别的基础上，深度挖掘目标领域新兴主题发展的规律，利用格兰杰因果检验和协整分析，对其特征关联效应进行长期均衡检验和因果关系推断，分析影响新兴主题发展的长期关联因素及其作用关系。[ 结果 / 结论 ] 提出一套新兴主题识别及其关联特征分析的方法。为证实该方法的可行性和有效性，选取湿地领域开展实证研究，结合主题识别与特征关联效应分析，刻画该领域主题科学影响的动态发展路径，从关联特征视角出发提出新兴主题的建设思考。 Abstract: [Purpose/Significance] Carrying out research on emerging research topics(ERT) identification and scientifically and effectively discovering their characteristic correlation laws can better serve practical needs and give play to the innovative supporting role of sci-tech information research on the development of disciplines. Aiming at discovering emerging research topic(ERT) and its characteristic correlation effect scientifically and effectively, this paper carries out ERT identification and feature analysis, while realizing the innovative supporting role of sci-tech information work. [Method/Process] Starting from the definition of the features of ERT, this paper established the methodological framework of ERT identification by using natural language processing, global principal component analysis and time series analysis. Based on the relevant theories and practices of emerging topic identification and scientific impact assessment, this thesis quantified the characteristics of the topic’s consistency, novelty, influence, and growth. On the basis of emerging themes identification, the law of the development of emerging themes in the target field is deeply excavated. Granger causality test and cointegration analysis were used to explore the long term equilibrium and the correlation effects of their characteristics. [Result/Conclusion] This paper proposes a method to identify ERT and their correlation feature analysis. In order to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this method, the field of wetland was selected to carry out empirical research. Combined with the topic identification and feature correlation effect analysis, the final result depicted the dynamic development path of subject science influence in this field, while putting forward some advices on developing emerging topics from the perspective of associated characteristics. 趋势预测新兴主题识别特征关联效应协整分析面板数据分析分类：图书馆学、情报学 >> 图书馆学投稿状态：已在期刊出版引用： ChinaXiv:202310.00653 (或此版本 ChinaXiv:202310.00653V1 ) DOI:dx.doi.org/10.13266/j.issn.2095-5472.2022.020 CSTR:32003.36.ChinaXiv.202310.00653.V1 推荐引用方式：李雅倩,孙玉玲,赵婉雨.(2023).基于主题模型和时间序列分析的新兴主题识别与特征关联研究.知识管理论坛.doi:dx.doi.org/10.13266/j.issn.2095-5472.2022.020 版本历史 [V1] 2023-10-08 09:44:09 ChinaXiv:202310.00653V1 下载全文

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