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近55 a渭河流域气候变化 作者： 冯星 郭建青 作者单位： 1. 长安大学 提交时间： 2018-10-23 摘要: 利用渭河流域21个气象站点1960—2015年逐日气象资料，应用一元线性趋势分析、Penman-Monteith模型和Morlet小波分析等技术手段分别研究年、月地表湿润指数，并对其进行标准化和气温、降水以及极端干旱事件的变化趋势，并分析年内变化规律，以期更好的揭示渭河流域近55年气候的变化规律。结果表明：（1）渭河流域近55a的气温总体上在波动中呈小幅增加的趋势，其中80年代中期到90年代初期气温的增长幅度较大，为气温升高的主要时期，年均降水量和极端干旱频率呈现小幅减少的趋势，下降的主要时期集中在80年代中后期到90年代初期和21世纪初。（2）小波周期分析发现渭河流域极端干旱事件的震荡周期尺度为13～15a和25～30a，气温震荡周期的时间尺度为13～15a和25～30a，年将水量的小波振荡周期为15～17a和25～30a。主震荡周期的时间尺度均为25～30a，次震荡周期的时间尺度也较为接近，为13～15a和15～17a，说明三者的变化规律在一定程度上有一定的相似性。（3）研究区内五个区域的气候变化特征同时存在着一定的差异性，天水-西吉流域的年均降水量和极端干旱事件发生频率的减少幅度和年均气温的增加幅度是5个区域里变化最大的，吴其-状头区域的年均降水量和极端干旱事件的减少频率和年均温度的增加频率是5个区域里变化幅度最小的，但在总体上各区域气候要素变化趋势上是保持一致的。 渭河流域 气候特征 极端干旱事件 Penman-Monteith模型 分类： 地球科学 >> 大气科学 引用： ChinaXiv:201810.00176 (或此版本 ChinaXiv:201810.00176V1 ) doi:10.12074/201810.00176 CSTR:32003.36.ChinaXiv.201810.00176.V1 推荐引用方式： 冯星,郭建青.(2018).近55 a渭河流域气候变化.干旱区地理.[ChinaXiv:201810.00176] 版本历史 [V1] 2018-10-23 12:40:57 ChinaXiv:201810.00176V1 下载全文

分析思维降低情感预测影响偏差 Analytical Thinking Reduces Impact Bias in Affective Forecast 作者： 耿晓伟 1 刘丹 1 牛燕华 1 作者单位： 1. 鲁东大学 通讯作者： 耿晓伟 Email:fengandwei@126.com 提交时间： 2020-05-07 摘要: 人们在决策前需要对决策可能带来的结果进行预测。人们往往会高估未来事件对情感的影响, 这被称为影响偏差。本研究从双系统理论出发, 考察了分析思维是否会降低情感预测影响偏差。实验1（采用图片启动）和实验2（采用语言流畅性任务）考察了分析思维对影响偏差的影响，并分析了情感预测程度的中介作用。实验3在现场中以真实的决策（生育二孩）为例，考察了分析思维启动对情感预测的影响。结果发现：分析思维会降低情感预测，进而降低情感预测的影响偏差。 Abstract: " People overestimate the intensity and duration of their affective reactions to events in the future. This is called impact bias (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003). Impact bias influences individuals’ satisfaction with their decision making. Few studies have shed light on how to reduce impact bias in affective forecast based on dual-process theories. According to dual-process theories of human thinking, there are two distinct but interacting systems for information processing. System 1 relies on frugal heuristics and produces intuitive responses, while System 2 relies on deliberative analytical processing. System 2 often overrides the input of System 1 when analytical thinking is activated. Thus, we here hypothesize that analytical thinking reduces the impact bias in affective forecasting. In experiment 1, a total of 240 undergraduates were assigned to play an ultimatum game as proposers and asked to predict how they would feel when their proposals were accepted or rejected by responders. At random, they were told their proposals were accepted or rejected. As soon as they knew the result, they were asked to report how they felt. Before the ultimatum game began, participants were randomly assigned to view pictures of The Thinker to prime analytical thinking or geometric figures as a control condition. The results showed that analytical thinking reduced impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. In experiment 2, a total of 52 undergraduates took part in a memory test. They were asked to predict how they would feel if their score on a memory test exceeded 90% or not before they took the test. As soon as they knew the result that they did not exceed 90%, they were asked to report how they felt. Before taking the memory test, participants were randomly assigned to perform a verbal fluency task with words related to analytical thinking to prime analytical thinking or to a verbal fluency task with words not related to analytical thinking as a control condition. The results showed that analytical thinking reduced impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. In experiment 3, a total of 111 women who had only one child were asked to predict how they would feel if they had a second. Before predicting their feelings, they were randomly assigned to view pictures of The Thinker to prime analytical thinking or geometric figures as a control condition. Results showed that analytical thinking reduced the positive affect of having the second child but not the negative affect of having the second child. In sum, the present research shows that analytical thinking reduces impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. It can help us reduce impact bias in affective forecasting when making decisions and promote satisfaction with those decisions. Limitations and further research are here discussed as well. 分析思维 情感预测 影响偏差 双系统理论 来自： 耿晓伟 分类： 心理学 >> 应用心理学 引用： ChinaXiv:202005.00026 (或此版本 ChinaXiv:202005.00026V1 ) doi:10.12074/202005.00026 CSTR:32003.36.ChinaXiv.202005.00026.V1 推荐引用方式： 耿晓伟,刘丹,牛燕华.(2020).分析思维降低情感预测影响偏差.中国科学院科技论文预发布平台.[ChinaXiv:202005.00026] 版本历史 [V1] 2020-05-07 09:30:00 ChinaXiv:202005.00026V1 下载全文

如果穿越回宋代，是该吟诗作赋、风花雪月？还是厉兵秣马、争霸天下？不论如何，先填饱肚子再说。

下一本《亲姐驾到》求收藏】赵向晚与赵晨阳是姐妹俩，向晚乖巧懂事、勤劳肯干，却吃不饱穿不暖；

秦兰州资源环境职业技术大学也捧着茶杯微笑着，只是不如秦洛笑的那么夸张而已

我叫陈默，32岁那天，公司裁员，妻子离婚，房子即将断供，眼前浮现出了玄幻天骄系统。 "莫欺少年穷，检测到主角遇见退婚事件，属性+0.1"。 等等，32岁也算少年吗？ 为了养活自己，我需要先找到一份工作，去富人区当保安挺不错 第一个月，力量1.0，业主就是天，业主就是地。 第二个月，力量2.0，我和拳王有得一拼。 第三个月，力量3.0，这小区，我说谁是天，谁就是天。 第四个月，我破境超凡，世间规则已困不住我。 第五个月，我站在世界之巅，轻轻开口，我不吃牛肉。 【评分刚出，不一定会升】

古语云：关西出将，关东出相。 禾晏是天生的将星。 她是兄长的替代品，征战沙场多年，平西羌，定南蛮，却在同族兄长病好之时功成身退，嫁人成亲。 成亲之后，不得夫君宠爱，更身患奇疾，双目失明，貌美小妾站在她面前温柔而语：你那毒瞎双眼的汤药，可是你族中长辈亲自吩咐送来。只有死人才不会泄露秘密，你活着——就是对他们天大的威胁！ 一代名将，巾帼英雄，死于后宅争风吃醋的无知妇人手中，何其荒唐！ 再醒来，她竟成操练场上校尉的女儿，柔弱骄纵，青春烂漫。 领我的功勋，要我的命，带我的兵马，欺我的情！重来一世，她定要将所失去的一件件夺回来。召天下，红颜封侯，威震九州！ 一如军营深似海，这不，一开始就遇到了她前世的死对头，那个“兵锋所指，威惊绝域”的少年将军。 很飒的女将军x A爆了的狼系少年，双将军设定，请支持正版茶~

杨云枫这时走去，看了一眼桌上的诗句，其他三人的他都不关心，只关心杜甫的，因为他知道杜甫日后将为公孙大娘写出一首《极乐净干》，若是因为今日提前写出，那么自己就没什么发挥的余地了，但是一见不是《复活先祖》，心中暗暗窃喜，立刻提笔写道：“今有佳人公孙氏，一舞剑器动四方