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分析思维降低情感预测影响偏差 Analytical Thinking Reduces Impact Bias in Affective Forecast 作者： 耿晓伟 1 刘丹 1 牛燕华 1 作者单位： 1. 鲁东大学 通讯作者： 耿晓伟 Email:fengandwei@126.com 提交时间： 2020-05-07 摘要: 人们在决策前需要对决策可能带来的结果进行预测。人们往往会高估未来事件对情感的影响, 这被称为影响偏差。本研究从双系统理论出发, 考察了分析思维是否会降低情感预测影响偏差。实验1（采用图片启动）和实验2（采用语言流畅性任务）考察了分析思维对影响偏差的影响，并分析了情感预测程度的中介作用。实验3在现场中以真实的决策（生育二孩）为例，考察了分析思维启动对情感预测的影响。结果发现：分析思维会降低情感预测，进而降低情感预测的影响偏差。 Abstract: " People overestimate the intensity and duration of their affective reactions to events in the future. This is called impact bias (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003). Impact bias influences individuals’ satisfaction with their decision making. Few studies have shed light on how to reduce impact bias in affective forecast based on dual-process theories. According to dual-process theories of human thinking, there are two distinct but interacting systems for information processing. System 1 relies on frugal heuristics and produces intuitive responses, while System 2 relies on deliberative analytical processing. System 2 often overrides the input of System 1 when analytical thinking is activated. Thus, we here hypothesize that analytical thinking reduces the impact bias in affective forecasting. In experiment 1, a total of 240 undergraduates were assigned to play an ultimatum game as proposers and asked to predict how they would feel when their proposals were accepted or rejected by responders. At random, they were told their proposals were accepted or rejected. As soon as they knew the result, they were asked to report how they felt. Before the ultimatum game began, participants were randomly assigned to view pictures of The Thinker to prime analytical thinking or geometric figures as a control condition. The results showed that analytical thinking reduced impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. In experiment 2, a total of 52 undergraduates took part in a memory test. They were asked to predict how they would feel if their score on a memory test exceeded 90% or not before they took the test. As soon as they knew the result that they did not exceed 90%, they were asked to report how they felt. Before taking the memory test, participants were randomly assigned to perform a verbal fluency task with words related to analytical thinking to prime analytical thinking or to a verbal fluency task with words not related to analytical thinking as a control condition. The results showed that analytical thinking reduced impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. In experiment 3, a total of 111 women who had only one child were asked to predict how they would feel if they had a second. Before predicting their feelings, they were randomly assigned to view pictures of The Thinker to prime analytical thinking or geometric figures as a control condition. Results showed that analytical thinking reduced the positive affect of having the second child but not the negative affect of having the second child. In sum, the present research shows that analytical thinking reduces impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. It can help us reduce impact bias in affective forecasting when making decisions and promote satisfaction with those decisions. Limitations and further research are here discussed as well. 分析思维 情感预测 影响偏差 双系统理论 来自： 耿晓伟 分类： 心理学 >> 应用心理学 引用： ChinaXiv:202005.00026 (或此版本 ChinaXiv:202005.00026V1 ) doi:10.12074/202005.00026 CSTR:32003.36.ChinaXiv.202005.00026.V1 推荐引用方式： 耿晓伟,刘丹,牛燕华.(2020).分析思维降低情感预测影响偏差.中国科学院科技论文预发布平台.[ChinaXiv:202005.00026] 版本历史 [V1] 2020-05-07 09:30:00 ChinaXiv:202005.00026V1 下载全文

【恶女不洗白+精致利己+训狗+雄竞修罗场】 云绮穿进了故意丑化她的话本子里。 从权倾朝野、面首无数的长公主，一朝沦为侯府声名狼藉的假千金。 而真千金却成为侯府明珠，未来是母仪天下的皇后，还让一众天之骄子为她倾倒。 睁开眼，得知被她下药的冷硬将军要休了她。 她反手便将人绑在椅上。 嗯，的确很硬。 - 侯府要将她扫地出门。 她反手便将侯府能灭门的罪状甩过去。 这些事他们没干过？ 没干过她可以造谣啊。 - 满京城人人嘲讽她脑袋空空，蠢笨无知。 她从不解释。 装逼这种事，就得等哪天装波大的才行。 - 京中不知何时流传开新话本，名为《恶女驯犬录》 第一章：冷硬将军变忠犬，前夫哥冷脸洗内裤。 第二章：阴郁弟弟不听话，拴上条狗链就好了。 第三章：竹马世子恨她要死，亲懵就没力气骂人了。 第四章：高岭之花丞相只可远观，她偏趴人身上看。 第五章：谁说救风尘的只能是男人？ …… 云绮被身边一众男人喂着蜜渍梅子，翻完最后一页，随手将话本子扔进炭盆。 她懒懒望了眼漫天飞絮——这京城的雪，比话本子好看多了。 - （1vn，结局未定，男全洁） （万人嫌爆改万人迷，女主名取自「行到水穷处，坐看云起时」） （女主可能和每个男主都有暧昧亲密接触，能接受再看）

甜宠双洁、先婚后爱】被亲生父亲设局当晚，江柠误打误撞地掉进了另一个局。 转瞬就被神秘大佬拽到民政局，一夜间成为隐婚的陆太太。 事业崭露头角，契约婚姻却遭遇曝光，各种黑料不断缠身。 陆遇冷眼相待，奚落道：“净给我惹麻烦！” 转过身，却杀气毕露地对助理说：“把抹黑太太的那家媒体端了！” 助理：“太太已经自己搞定。” 陆遇：“？？？” 江柠身世被曝，有人说：“落水的凤凰不如鸡，嫁给陆遇是她高攀。” 而她却带着马甲强势回归，“抱歉，老娘是凤凰涅槃，浴火重生！” 契约提前终止，江柠与陆遇相约民政局，然而男人却耍赖将结婚证撕毁。 “抱歉陆太太，协议期限我说了算！我要无限延长......” 陆遇，曾是万人眼中的魔，却为了她一次次立地成佛。 江柠，曾被隔离在整个世界之外，却被霸道地拽进了只有他的世界！

暗月升了起来。 众神大陆与恒元大陆是同一个月亮，但是由于众神大陆高空流动着绿雾，黑雾，红雾的原因，所以从地面看去，月亮幽暗。 不过，对于众神大陆来说，白天和黑夜一样，都是一片黑暗，惨绿。 第0127章 死亡森林 在周围布下一个防御和隐匿气息的灵阵之后，黄龙几人坐在里面调息起来。 “这众神大陆还真是凶险万分！”在灵阵之内，古斯塔深呼了一口气，禁不住惊叹道，想起一路下来遇到的那些凶灵，亡灵和强大的怪物，他仍然心有余悸。 若非一路下来，黄龙阻杀了大部分的凶灵，亡灵，还有黄龙源源不断地提供丹药补充体内魔力，纵然以他圣域高阶的实力也无法支撑到现在，只怕早已成为那些凶灵的口中之食。 经过一个月跟随，对于黄龙，他从心里也都早已臣服了。 在不知不觉之中，与博格一样，已认黄龙为少主。 无尽之海上，龙岛周围，黄龙竟然胆敢截杀龙族黄金圣龙！当时，看着在黄龙紫雷天刀下抛飞而起，血溅半空的龙首，古斯塔“吓”得半天都无法平复心中的震惊。 他古斯塔兰州资源环境职业技术大学恒元大陆几百年，还从来没有听说有人胆敢截杀龙族黄金圣龙，而且是在龙岛周围。 这个举动，过于疯狂！ 几百年前，他杀死光明教廷骑士团的团长时就觉得自己的胆儿够肥了，几百年来过着忐忑不安躲避着光明教廷追杀的日子，而现在与黄龙少主相比，有点小神见主神了，不值一提。 “少主，我们到这死亡森林来是？”纳特调息之后，对黄龙恭敬而小心地问道。 博格，古斯塔这时也都望向了黄龙，一路下来，黄龙便往死亡森林赶来，他们心中疑惑，莫非死亡森林有神体或神格不成？

苏观崖自然很清楚，燕京城虽然处在苏家的掌控之下，但是这终究是个复杂的都城，各家势力兰州资源环境职业技术大学交错，世家巨头虽然在掌控之中，但是却不能保证他们还有其他的遗漏势力在京中暗暗活动。

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和豪门导演假戏真做了[重生]是(封诀)新书,这是一个现代人回到古代，回到一个完全没有任何超凡的真实世界，靠着将一切数据属性化的异能，慢慢崛起的故事。 精彩尽在和豪门导演假戏真做了[重生]

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注：这段内容在外传《无病的少女》里，讲述维烈在地球追席恩的经过，是个不保证会挖的坑） 时间飞快地流逝，仿佛穿过指间的沙