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分析思维降低情感预测影响偏差 Analytical Thinking Reduces Impact Bias in Affective Forecast 作者： 耿晓伟 1 刘丹 1 牛燕华 1 作者单位： 1. 鲁东大学 通讯作者： 耿晓伟 Email:fengandwei@126.com 提交时间： 2020-05-07 摘要: 人们在决策前需要对决策可能带来的结果进行预测。人们往往会高估未来事件对情感的影响, 这被称为影响偏差。本研究从双系统理论出发, 考察了分析思维是否会降低情感预测影响偏差。实验1（采用图片启动）和实验2（采用语言流畅性任务）考察了分析思维对影响偏差的影响，并分析了情感预测程度的中介作用。实验3在现场中以真实的决策（生育二孩）为例，考察了分析思维启动对情感预测的影响。结果发现：分析思维会降低情感预测，进而降低情感预测的影响偏差。 Abstract: " People overestimate the intensity and duration of their affective reactions to events in the future. This is called impact bias (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003). Impact bias influences individuals’ satisfaction with their decision making. Few studies have shed light on how to reduce impact bias in affective forecast based on dual-process theories. According to dual-process theories of human thinking, there are two distinct but interacting systems for information processing. System 1 relies on frugal heuristics and produces intuitive responses, while System 2 relies on deliberative analytical processing. System 2 often overrides the input of System 1 when analytical thinking is activated. Thus, we here hypothesize that analytical thinking reduces the impact bias in affective forecasting. In experiment 1, a total of 240 undergraduates were assigned to play an ultimatum game as proposers and asked to predict how they would feel when their proposals were accepted or rejected by responders. At random, they were told their proposals were accepted or rejected. As soon as they knew the result, they were asked to report how they felt. Before the ultimatum game began, participants were randomly assigned to view pictures of The Thinker to prime analytical thinking or geometric figures as a control condition. The results showed that analytical thinking reduced impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. In experiment 2, a total of 52 undergraduates took part in a memory test. They were asked to predict how they would feel if their score on a memory test exceeded 90% or not before they took the test. As soon as they knew the result that they did not exceed 90%, they were asked to report how they felt. Before taking the memory test, participants were randomly assigned to perform a verbal fluency task with words related to analytical thinking to prime analytical thinking or to a verbal fluency task with words not related to analytical thinking as a control condition. The results showed that analytical thinking reduced impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. In experiment 3, a total of 111 women who had only one child were asked to predict how they would feel if they had a second. Before predicting their feelings, they were randomly assigned to view pictures of The Thinker to prime analytical thinking or geometric figures as a control condition. Results showed that analytical thinking reduced the positive affect of having the second child but not the negative affect of having the second child. In sum, the present research shows that analytical thinking reduces impact bias in affective forecasting by reducing the intensity of predicted emotions. It can help us reduce impact bias in affective forecasting when making decisions and promote satisfaction with those decisions. Limitations and further research are here discussed as well. 分析思维 情感预测 影响偏差 双系统理论 来自： 耿晓伟 分类： 心理学 >> 应用心理学 引用： ChinaXiv:202005.00026 (或此版本 ChinaXiv:202005.00026V1 ) doi:10.12074/202005.00026 CSTR:32003.36.ChinaXiv.202005.00026.V1 推荐引用方式： 耿晓伟,刘丹,牛燕华.(2020).分析思维降低情感预测影响偏差.中国科学院科技论文预发布平台.[ChinaXiv:202005.00026] 版本历史 [V1] 2020-05-07 09:30:00 ChinaXiv:202005.00026V1 下载全文
海外
只是《反派辞职之后》的强劲多少让威尔有些感慨，《如梦幻泡影如露亦如电》的影评关键词是“吃老本、毫无新意、沉闷俗套”，第一部的老本也吃得差不多了，北美1.7亿美金，全球3.7亿；
权谋
2011年客串励志电影《中天陨落》，这个世界郭妃丽是和地球上发展是一样的。
无CP
【又名：给异世界一点钢铁洪流的震撼！】 【异世界+女帝+工业革命+科技+种田+争霸+钢铁洪流】 秦墨穿越异世，成为了东大陆炎国摄政王。 当朝女帝能力不足，内有奸臣作乱，外有列强蚕食。 全国上下，苦不堪言。 西方魔法帝国，北方兽人帝国，南部精灵帝国，无不虎视眈眈。 幸好，秦墨手握工业革命系统， 整顿朝纲，登临帝位，改善民生。 在这个剑与魔法的波澜壮阔的世界中，创立大秦帝国，推动工业革命。 建立起人类历史上最强工业帝国。 给这个世界带来一点科技的震撼！ 天空上，翱翔于天际的巨龙嚎叫着被铺天盖地的战斗机击落。 大地上，高傲的圣骑士与野蛮的兽人被无穷无尽的钢铁洪流碾压而过。 大海上，钢铁巨兽航空母舰驰骋大海，将人类历史推向新的篇章。 即使是昔日如同神明一般的魔法师，在枪林弹雨的面前也只能化为齑粉！ 他们说神明抛弃了这片大陆，但大秦帝国皇帝说：“是我们抛弃了神明！” 上帝？上帝他有几个师啊？
黑暗流
王泽杰看着利智那抖动的胸部和在那长长的下摆下时隐时现的肉丝美腿，想见她当年在《召唤火精灵》《恐怖小说网》《是绿皮孢子哦》《实力暴涨的皇庭》之中美艳动人的风采，情不自禁吞了一大口口水
和离
咱们更关心《声波阵列的动力源》上的价目消息，还有《时间停止只是考古学技能的一部分》里皇上又颁了什么新政
商城
虞瑾重生到凌家登门退亲这日， 前世，她为争一口气，拒不退婚，和凌木南做了一世怨侣，至死方休。 如今重回当年岔路口…… 往前看，凌家，她那未婚夫的亲亲表妹肚子都大了，一堆乌糟事等着， 往后看，自家门里也不清净， 二姑娘一心谋算嫁权贵，三姑娘觊觎准姐夫，四姑娘正待择黄道吉日与情郎私奔…… 虞家长房无子，爵位传给二房败家子，家族很快就会衰败没落…… 既然大家都不争气，那就索性一起躺平摆烂，爱咋咋地吧！ 素来掐尖要强的掌家大小姐退婚后“一蹶不振”，一家人只觉天都塌了！ 三姑娘摸黑去套了凌木南一顿麻袋：退我大姐的婚？你也配！看上你当我眼瞎，呸！ 四姑娘直接和情郎一刀两断：我家现在全靠我了，儿女情长的事先放放，下辈子再说哈。 二婶天天在家揍儿子：上不了战场就把书读烂！将来登阁拜相，给我狠狠打脸姓凌的！ 就连瘸腿颓废的二叔都开始风雨无阻的坐着举铁…… 虞瑾：…… 既然大家都自觉卷起来了，应该更不会介意多养她一条咸鱼了吧？ 直到后来某天，二姑娘羞答答揪手帕带她出门看美男：天涯何处无芳草，大姐姐你瞧那位宣世子，家世品貌皆上乘，位高权重还洁身自好，要不你使个手段将他拿下？ 虞瑾：……大可不必，上辈子你嫁了他，可是不到一年就被磋磨死了……
元宇宙
王泽杰接拍了悬疑爱情剧《你不是一颗蛋了》，以及电视剧《卧槽这年轻人》。
漫画
【开局大战合欢宗仙子+爽文+用完就杀+有仇必报+幽默诙谐】 “秦长风！乖乖躺好，当本女帝的炉鼎！” “我要吸干你的元气！” 【叮！检测到敌意功法：极乐功…开始解析…掌握中…推演结束！】 【叮！极乐功法，已升至大圆满！】 合欢宗女帝，感到自身修为如开闸洪水，不受控制涌入秦长风体内！ “不！这不可能！” “呜呜，本女帝知道错了，跪求放过！” 任何攻击秦长风的功法神通，都会被瞬间掌握，并提升至当前境界的理论巅峰！ 敌人越强，他薅到的羊毛就越肥！ 妩媚妖女想吸他？反被榨干，修为暴涨！ 绝世大帝，发动盖世神通想碾死秦长风？ 下一秒，同样的招数，威力更甚，直接将大帝反杀当场！ 全天下的敌人，都成了他秦长风的“送宝童子”和“授业恩师”！ “求求你别打了，我的最强功法都快被你学完了！” “还有谁想杀我秦长风？排好队，一个一个来送！”
抽奖
2006年，主演家庭伦理剧《反派：被渣女主们全是病娇》，这是国内首部以拐卖儿童为主要内容的电视剧。
闪婚
叶斐然
过分。真是的。那个死女人。
自从喝了营养液，除了更新，不想干别的。 客官，您点的营养液，本店接受以更新来付款哦。
都是人间好时节。还好这树是长在寺庙里，如果长在皇宫或者富家大院里，是不是经历更多的良善丑恶，从而入了尘却出不了尘了呢。
很久没见这样的好文了 加分
想起来，初中那会我盖的棉被很硬很重，睡觉有点喘不过气，我跟我妈说想换一张，我妈就说这张棉被是最暖和的。后来过了几年，有次我开玩笑让我弟盖那张棉被，她说不行，说我弟盖着不冷吗？我当时沉默了好久